Preface: At present, in the automotive industry in the context of electrification, intelligence and automotive product upgrades, the brake system performance requirements are gradually increasing, and carbon ceramic brake discs have more obvious advantages, this article will talk about the carbon ceramic brake disc industry.
I. Event Background
Recently, Azera released its first large five-seat SUV, the ES7, which uses an integrated cast all-aluminum rear frame, the second time Azera uses integrated die-casting technology in its products. With the development of lightweight and electrification, the integrated die-casting technology is being sought after by new car makers and traditional car companies, and the lightweighting of the vehicle structure has undoubtedly become an integral part of modern car design optimization. The application of carbon ceramic brake discs will vigorously promote the process of automotive lightweighting, the following is to talk about this industry.
Two, understanding carbon ceramic brake discs
At present, the brake materials widely used in high-speed trains, automobiles and aircraft are mainly powder metallurgy and carbon-carbon composite materials. However, powder metallurgy brake materials have shortcomings such as high temperature easy bonding, friction performance easy to decline, high temperature strength decline significantly, poor thermal shock resistance, short service life, etc.; while carbon carbon brake materials have low static and wet state friction coefficient, large volume of heat storage, long production cycle and high production cost, which restrict its further development and application.
Carbon ceramic brake discs combine the physical properties of both carbon fiber and polycrystalline silicon carbide. Meanwhile, the light weight, good hardness, stability under high pressure and high temperature, thermal shock resistance and shear fracture characteristics of the same toughness not only prolong the service life of the brake disc, but also avoid all the problems arising from the load.
Third, the current situation of the industry
1. Carbon ceramic brake disc performance is significantly better than ordinary gray cast iron brake disc, but the cost is its shortcomings
At present, the widely used brake disc materials are mainly ordinary cast iron, low-alloy cast iron, ordinary cast steel, special alloy cast steel, low-alloy forged steel and cast iron a cast steel (forged steel) composite materials, cast iron materials are more widely used. Cast iron materials have long manufacturing cycle, poor thermal conductivity and easy to produce thermal cracks and other deficiencies, so carbon and carbon ceramic composite materials for the development of brake materials.
Due to the high cost of carbon-carbon composite materials, mainly used for aircraft brakes, with the development of high-speed railroads in recent years, domestic and foreign scientists began to develop the development of high-speed railroads for carbon ceramic composite friction vice, carbon ceramic composite materials is an international focus on the development of friction materials, China has also been in the initial stage, carbon ceramic brake discs in the future to reduce the cost of space is larger, is expected to become the main development of brake products It is expected to become the main development direction of brake products.
2. The direct material cost of carbon ceramic brake discs is relatively low, and there is a large space for cost reduction in technology and scale.
In 2021, the single-ton cost of the company’s hot field series products is 370,000 yuan/ton, down 20% from 460,000 yuan/ton in 2017, and the single-ton manufacturing cost is 11.4 million yuan in 2021, down 53.8% from 246,800 yuan in 2017, which is a significant technical cost reduction. In 2021, the raw material cost ratio is 52%. With the expansion of scale, technology upgrade, automation level improvement and carbon fiber price decline, there is huge space for product cost reduction. The current carbon ceramic brake pad single piece price is about 2500-3500 yuan, for with C class and above passenger car market, it is expected that in 2025 the single piece value is expected to drop to about 1000-1200 yuan, will be down to B class and above passenger car market.
Four, industry prospects
1. Carbon ceramic brake discs have more space for domestic replacement
Due to the complexity of the process, the difficulty of production, long production cycle and other thresholds, the domestic enterprises that can mass produce carbon ceramic discs are relatively few. The main suppliers of carbon ceramic composite brake discs include Brembo (Italy), Surface Transforms Plc (UK), Fusionbrakes (USA), etc. Few domestic enterprises have mastered the preparation technology of high-performance carbon/tau composite brake discs, and there is a large space for domestic substitution.
The main customers of overseas carbon ceramic brake disc manufacturers are high-end sports car manufacturers, and the unit price of the products is higher. Take the overseas company Brembo as an example, the product price of a single carbon ceramic disc is more than 100,000 RMB, while the value of a single domestic carbon ceramic disc is about 0.8-12,000 RMB, which has a very high cost performance. With the continuous technological breakthrough of domestic enterprises in this field, and the continuous evolution of the trend of “additional, high, intelligent” new energy vehicles, the penetration rate of carbon ceramic discs for domestic new energy vehicles is expected to continue to increase.
2. Carbon ceramic brake discs meet the trend of automotive lightweighting
Experimental evidence shows that a 10% reduction in vehicle weight can increase fuel efficiency by 6% – -8%; for every 100 kg reduction in vehicle mass, fuel consumption can be reduced by 0.3 – -0.6 liters per 100 km, so lightweight technology is the key development direction for future vehicles.
Reduce the mass below the suspension system with half the effort, carbon ceramic brake disc is the key component to reduce weight. Every 1kg reduction below the suspension system is equivalent to a 5kg reduction above the suspension system. A pair of 380mm size carbon ceramic discs is about 20kg lighter than gray cast iron discs, which is equivalent to a 100kg weight reduction in the suspension system of the car. In addition, Toyota’s high-end sports car Lexus RCF has been through the CFRP material and carbon ceramic brake discs to reduce the weight of 70kg in many aspects, of which 22kg is contributed by carbon ceramic brake discs, so carbon ceramic brake discs for the key parts of the car weight reduction.
V. Market Space
Replacing the original powder metallurgy brake disc is the inevitable trend of this industry: first, the price of carbon fiber will gradually decline to drive down the direct cost of the product itself; second, with the rise of the production and sales scale, the optimization of the process link, the economy of scale will bring down the cost of carbon ceramic brake disc; third, the safer driving experience will promote the upgrading of products in the automotive industry. 2023 is expected to be the first year of carbon ceramic brake disc promotion. The first year of brake disc promotion, the domestic market is expected to reach 7.8 billion yuan in 2025, and the domestic market size is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan in 2030.
By 2025, the market size of traditional powder metallurgy brake discs will be 90 billion yuan according to the price of 1000 yuan for a single car and 90 million cars sold worldwide, and the domestic market will be close to 30 billion yuan. With the acceleration of electrification, the penetration rate of carbon ceramic brake discs will likely exceed our expectations. This is a brand new market that fits the general trend of electric intelligence development and is a breakthrough of 0-1. And for automotive safety considerations, once the breakthrough will become a selling point for automotive safety, the development rate is expected to exceed expectations, and the future overall market sales revenue will be expected to approach 200-300 billion yuan.
Post time: Dec-03-2022